Tesla’s deliveries fell 2% and still beat expectations

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, down 2% year on year but well above the 461,000 analysts expected, with American electric sales down 47% in August after the federal credit expired. Its European registrations rose 43.3% between January and August, outpacing the wider battery-electric market.

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles last quarter, 2% fewer than a year ago and well above what analysts expected. The American electric market has collapsed since the federal credit expired. Europe is where Tesla grew.

Forecasts sat near 461,100, and Tesla’s own compiled consensus at 461,974, as CNBC reported. Shares rose about 2%. Production was 464,391, so Tesla delivered roughly 22,000 more cars than it built.

Last year’s third quarter was the record, inflated by American buyers racing a $7,500 credit that ended on 30 September 2025. Electric sales in the United States were down 47% in August against last year, on Cox Automotive’s figures.

Europe went the other way. Registrations across the EU, Britain and EFTA rose 43.3% between January and August, against 38.8% for the battery-electric market as a whole, according to the European carmakers’ association.

That reverses what we reported in April, when Tesla’s European registrations fell 17% in January, with Norway down 88% and the Netherlands 67%.

September extended the recovery. Portugal rose 128.3%, France 61.9%, Sweden 38.4% and Spain 24.8%.

The market grew underneath it. Electric cars took 29% of new registrations across Europe in August.

Tesla is still smaller here than it was. BYD outsold it across Europe through May, and its share of the EU market has sat around 2%.

Growth and share are different measures. Tesla is climbing fast from a bad 2025 rather than returning to where it was, in a market where Chinese brands hit a record 10.9% in June. Analysts expect that growth to slow to about the market rate next year.

The energy business grew regardless. Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of storage in the quarter, against 12.5 GWh a year earlier.

Its robotaxi network covers six cities in Texas and Florida. Europe already has a driverless service running on Chinese software, in Zagreb.

The shares are down 21% this year, behind every megacap peer. The Cybercab joined the robotaxi fleet in September and Optimus production is promised before the year ends.

Earnings come on 21 October. Deliveries fell and the shares rose, because the market Tesla was supposed to be losing is the one holding it up.