SXSW 2010 is over, so at this point let’s drop the moniker “Location Wars” and adopt what we should have been saying all along – location is the next web.
Our esteemed colleague Martin Bryant thought the SXSW-location-hubbub was overblown, and he is correct in pointing out that numbers-wise, users of location-specific apps are still very low, and in some places, and with some demographics of users, usage is almost non-existent. But today does not equal tomorrow. While the thousands of “geeks” at SXSWi are certainly not a pure representative slice of humanity, they generally do know a good Internet thing when they see it, and that thing right now is location.
Martin points out one of the loudest arguments that we hear about location: that it will just be a feature among many other features of larger services. However, it will be the other way around – all other services will be features of location, just as video and photo sharing are features of social media today.
As Joe Stump (co-founder of SimpleGeo, so yeah, he’s biased) mentioned in one of his panels at SXSW (funny how we keep going back there…), the reason that all of these startups are “at war” is because location today is what social media was in 2001. It’s a gold rush and someone is going to make billions on it. Not everyone gets it right now, some people are even downright afraid of it, but regardless, it is where the web is going, and the companies – big or small – that realize this are going to be the most important companies on the Internet in 5-10 years. In our interview with Steve Lee of Google (yes, also at SXSW), he said it flat out, “we’re going to put location into everything we do“. He didn’t say “social media”, he didn’t say “microblogging”, he said “location”.
Foursquare and Gowalla, and Brightkite and Loopt before them, and all the other location-focused services out there right now, are just the beginning. Check-ins are useful and gaming elements are fun, but both are features of location, not the endgame that location will be. We can’t see that endgame right now, mainly because everyone doesn’t have a smartphone and a data plan yet. Only when smartphones are ubiquitous (as laptops are now) will that endgame become clear to everyone.
When everything online in the not-too-distant-future is a feature of location – just as it’s nearly impossible to say that any service today is not a feature of social media – pundits will look back at the first half of 2010 and think, “Wow, those early Foursquare users really knew what was coming. But now what’s the next web?” Until then, rest assured, the next web is location.















I think that passive checkins + 100% smartphone penetration = endgame.
Great article. I fully believe that you're absolutely right about the direction of location. Joe also said at that same panel that it's not a location war, its a presence war. Brilliant.
Hi Chad, great points – semantics aside, I think we actually agree with each other. All I was saying (albeit with a provocative title) was that there's a long way to go and the 'winner' at SXSW doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Ok, I also agree that the winner at SXSW didn't mean anything (and that there wasn't a winner), but I think the core issue is whether location will be a feature of other services or location will be the core and have a range of features.
This is nonsense. Even when theres 100% ubiquity of “smartphones”, “normal' people wont want their every movement tracked even if its by choice. And I suppose the novelty of “gaming” in foursquare and such amuses the sxsw crowd, but most will find that a waste of time as well. Some of these features will make their way into other apps, and right now yelp seems far more useful than foursquare. Oh and gowalla is a fail if only because Calacanis is involved. Lets not forget the revenue plan for all of these is…wait for it….ADS! How original and welcome, yet another bunch of ads flying in my face. Fail written all over it.
Good article – especially the statement “Only when smartphones are ubiquitous (as laptops are now) will [the Location] endgame become clear”. It's spot on. Sometimes it is necessary to forecast what the future will be like in the future, not as it is today.
I don't think that location necessarily equals “tracking”. Some of course see it that way, but I don't think it is correct, especially in the long-term. People said the same thing about have real profiles online – there were of course bumps along the road, but overall, it has been a major success.
As far as revenue models go – it's not just ads (that said, there is nothing wrong with advertising as a business model). Check out Lawrence's post on location revenue models http://tnw.to/15r0u
Thanks Matthew. I didn't even mention tablets…
I think they have to be passively active check-ins. I want something that checks me in and then uses that info to benefit me.
Definitely the future, but frankly I still value my privacy enough to not share where I am with both establishments and friends & family. I'm still an “occasional check in” kinda guy so passive checkins I am absolutely not ready for yet.
What's clear is that location is not about any singular service; rather, it's a new layer of the Web
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