Nokia’s Lumia gambit: TNW’s take on the company’s biggest bet

It’s game time for Nokia, as the firm has initiated its advertising campaign to launch the Lumia 900, its great hope for a massive return to glory in the United States, a critical mobile market.

We’ve written much on the Lumia 900, a handset that we have reviewed favorably in our testing thus far. We have even gone as far as setting metrics for its first month’s sales. This post will be our final take on what will happen with the Lumia 900 upon its launch. From here on out we will deal with results only.

Several things happened recently that point to Nokia finding a strong footing before the launch, which will occur on April 8th. First, a respected analyst recently changed his position on Nokia to a positive rating. Second, the Lumia 900 hit the top of the AT&T sales charts on Amazon, on the strength of its pre-orders alone. Amazon is but one player in the mobile sales space, but the Lumia 900 is managing to demonstrate a certain level of demand.

So, here are TNW’s final predictions on the Lumia 900 launch. Enjoy:

Alex Wilhelm:

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The Lumia 900 is going to preform just well enough. The numbers won’t be riveting, but they also won’t be disappointing. Windows Phone will pick up a bit of momentum, Nokia will have a foothold in the US market, and Microsoft will have something lovely to flash in the media. The investments being made in the Lumia 900 will bear fruit, but I expect that harvest to be collected in 2013.

Drew Olanoff:

If Nokia had been able to harness the huge amount of hype that it had gotten around CES for the device, the initial numbers would have been way higher than what will actually happen.  Companies like Apple are very good at making products available almost immediately post-fanfare. It seems like the lapse in time could harm initial sales.

Matthew Panzarino:

 The question of whether the Lumia 900 will do well isn’t one of whether or not it’s a good device. My experiences with it at CES and my very positive time spent with the 800 make it easy to recommend it as one of the best Windows Phone devices out there right now. The success or failure of the 900 will largely have to do with how well Microsoft and Nokia sell it as an alternative to Android and iOS. If it can establish a beachhead of brand consciousness with Nokia’s return, it could do very well. If it doesn’t, then it will flounder somewhere under the million-sold mark.

Harrison Weber:

 I’ve always had a soft spot for Nokia, as they seemed to care more about design than most other OEMs. But then, the company nearly disappeared from the US market and I didn’t hear from them for quite a some time. Then I saw the N9.

Since then, Nokia has been the only company I believe can build a phone that looks as good as the iPhone. This, coupled with WP’s surprising progress and dare I say, quality, makes me think the Lumia 900 will  sell well, even though it may take some time to catch on.

One of the reasons for why WP may succeed is the number of very low end Android devices floating around. This has the potential to lead users away from the whole OS in search of something new. And since Apple fans already have their own cliches and connotations, WP has a chance to jump in as the new guy and make a dent.

And that’s that. Now we’re just going to put our feet up, sip some coffee, and watch the results come in.

Heads up: Harrison owns an inconsequential amount of Nokia stock.