Nebius shares fall 16% as data centre delays cut its 2026 outlook

Nebius shares fell 16% on Thursday after the Amsterdam-based AI cloud company cut its outlook for this year. It also raised its spending plans, CNBC’s Jordan Novet reported. The fall came despite third-quarter revenue that rose 571% from a year earlier, to $980.8m.

Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $907.5m, according to CNBC. Nebius posted adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $465.8m, against a loss of $5.2m a year earlier, its results show. Its net loss narrowed to $37.5m from $119.6m.

A weaker year, a bigger next one

Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3bn to $3.4bn range. Founder and chief executive Arkady Volozh gave the outlook in his letter to shareholders. Analysts had expected $3.37bn, CNBC reported. For 2027, Nebius expects revenue of $12bn to $13bn.

The cut comes from delays at data centre sites that Nebius rents from other companies. Some capacity due this year has moved to the first half of 2027. The contracts behind it remain in place, Deborah Sophia reported for Reuters.

One of them is a 300MW site in Vineland, New Jersey, held up by delays in power, John Reynolds reported for Tech.eu. Microsoft is a major customer there.

“Building at this scale is hard, and delays are part of our industry right now. We are not immune,” Volozh said, according to Tech.eu. “Customers have been kept informed and none of that capacity is cancelled.”

All of Nebius’s own sites under construction are on track or ahead of schedule, Volozh said, according to Reuters. He added that most of the next gigawatt Nebius brings online will be on its own sites.

Spending up to $45bn next year

Nebius now expects to spend about $27bn this year, up from its earlier forecast of $20bn to $25bn, CNBC reported. For 2027, it plans $40bn to $45bn, well above the $28.77bn analysts expected, according to FactSet data cited by CNBC.

Customer prepayments and asset-backed financing will cover 75% to 85% of next year’s spending, the company said. That financing rests on existing contracts with large customers such as Microsoft and Meta, according to Reuters.

“We have no doubt that this capacity will be sold. Clients are looking for capacity already for 2028, and prices for 2027 are going up. We do not see any risk,” chief financial officer Dado Alonso said, according to Reuters.

Nebius expects to break even on a pre-tax basis by the end of 2027. In October, it borrowed $3.5bn from Citi.

The Nvidia factor

Thursday’s fall came on the day Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia’s chief executive. Nvidia held about $329m of Nebius shares at the end of June, CNBC reported, citing a filing.

Rival CoreWeave reported results that beat estimates on Tuesday, and ruled out new unsecured debt. Nebius had lost more than a third of its value in October, Reuters reported. Investors had questioned the cost of the AI build-out.

“The demand for AI is real and substantial. Everything else, like building the capacity and financing it, is just a task,” Volozh said on a call with analysts, according to CNBC.