Windows Phone to overtake BlackBerry is a headline that sounds great for Microsoft’s mobile project, right? The reality is a bit different.

According to analysis over on WMPowerUser, Windows Phone does indeed appear set to surpass BlackBerry’s market share in the United States by the end of the year. Here’s the chart they put together (Ezra, this is for you, baby):

statcounterus 520x320 Rock v. Tortoise: Windows Phone may overtake BlackBerrys US market share this November

As you can instantly tell, Windows Phone is far less set to surpass BlackBerry as it is prepped to watch the erstwhile market leader fall past it at about 600 miles per hour. Hence my headline tweak.

Interestingly, this helps to cement Windows Phone as the third most important smartphone platform. But its market share numbers remain picayune, so that status likely won’t have the largest effect on it in the market.

Still, the utter collapse of BlackBerry does directly imply that mobile fortunes can indeed turn on a dime, and reverse course. That’s probably good news for Windows Phone, as it has little ground to lose and much to make up. Therefore, any ‘drastic’ move by it on the charts would, obviously, only be possible in the positive direction.

Windows Phone 8 is peeking around the corner next month it would seem. Let’s see what Microsoft can do with a fresh crop of handsets, a refreshed operating system, and the holiday sales cycle.

Top Image Credit: Vernon Chan