If indeed Nokia is interviewing for a new CEO, it should hire the candidate who tells the mobile giant this:
“I don’t want the job unless Nokia is going with Android.”
The reaction today about the CEO hunt has been most one of “about time”, with investors saying that Nokia has to poach someone from Apple, Palm, Google or Microsoft (heaven help them if they go with the latter). Nokia is a enormous company that can’t be run like a startup, but at this point it’s a company that has a startup’s decision to make: change or die (probably a slow death in Nokia’s case).
Hardware comes from OS
Nokia is losing market share left and right and to be honest it’s not because they make horrible hardware – the N8 for example looks very nice. Nokia’s hardware could certainly be a little more modern (they rely too much on keyboards for one), but Nokia has always has a flare for design and if its hardware designers had a powerful OS to work off of, they could probably package a good looking and powerful line of phones.
That OS has to be Android.
The real competition isn’t Apple
Lots of people are focusing around how Apple has totally eclipsed Nokia, and some are even saying that they need to differentiate from RIM. We bet, however, that the companies that Nokia is really looking are HTC and Motorola, which have taken Android and run with it, the former coming out of relative nowhere, the latter giving itself a chance to survive and perhaps thrive again (sound familiar?)
Nokia always looks at things from a global perspective, so the rise of HTC and re-kickstart of Motorola – both of which have good brand recognition in Asia for example – mainly because they went with Android hopefully has gotten through to at least some of their executives and board members. Yes, Nokia has been putting lots into MeeGo, which we said earlier this month actually looks promising, but the reality is that Android continues to pull away from every mobile OS except for iOS.
Complex partnership options
Maybe Nokia doesn’t want to be in a strategic partnership with Google, for whatever reason. The companies have competing mapping systems as one example where they compete, and aligning themselves in the same way as HTC has with Google might be too much. That said, what’s the other options? Apple certainly isn’t one. Perhaps they could work something out with HP with WebOS, which truth be told is a strong OS that just became the third man out. But why go with the third man out (or the fourth in MeeGo) when for no licensing fees you can just use Android, which is clearly on the rise?
Of course, Nokia could also do what HTC, LG and Samsung are doing in offer multiple OS options (hard to believe Nokia will drop Symbian on its low end phones anyway), including building custom skins over Android (though Android 3.0 might limit any need for this if it’s as good as some predict).
What it would take
So what would it take for Nokia to bring Android to it’s top tier phones? Well, they’d have to appease Intel about MeeGo for one – perhaps they could just use MeeGo for other devices (it is supposed to be a platform for all devices anyway). Also, they would have to look into the actual savings cost of building on Android, and how that would help Nokia’s margins. Finally, as we said above, this may only be something that a new CEO can make happen as a condition for the job. It sounds pretty radical, but if someone wants to really go into Nokia and turn things around, radical steps and attitude are going to be required.
It is good that Nokia isn’t going with Android. First of all, let us make 2 things absolutely clear – while in a bad position, Nokia is nowhere near the crippled position that Motorola was a couple of years back. So, it is not as desperate as Motorola to play second fiddle to Google. Second, HTC is not (atleast, yet) a worthy competitor to Nokia. HTC’s primary focus is on hardware manufacturing. Nokia appears to be moving from a purely hardware (handset) manufacturing company to a more solutions and services (software) driven company. To get a hold of the applications and services market, Nokia will need to develop and promote its own ecosystem. That’s where Ovi comes in. Android is more tailored to suit Google’s long term interests and is tied to Google’s services. The good thing that Nokia has done is to dump Symbian in favor of the new MeeGo OS for its high end mobile computers. A truly high end device on MeeGo with sophisticated services will give the likes of iPhone and Droid’s a good fight. I think Nokia has chosen its battles carefully with a lot of thought. But the reason why it may lose is because of very slow execution. If they can beef up their portfolio with good high end capacitive touch MeeGo devices, work with US carriers and speed up projects, they still have a chance.
Yeah, Nokia isn’t in nearly as bad a position as Motorola – but Nokia is starting to feel like the early stages of Motorola’s downward spiral. On HTC, I would say that they are quickly becoming a major player, although they are certainly not anywhere near the marketshare level of Nokia – as you said, yet.
As we’ve said, MeeGo looks like it has promise and if it is truly spectacular, Nokia might be onto something, but obviously I don’t think it will be, at least not enough to bring over enough devs and get the mindshare with consumers that Nokia both needs. Also, I completely agree with your slow execution point, that has certainly been an issue.
I like having a 3rd player in the smartphone market, and I don’t think RIM is it. Since the Moorestown processors that Intel is releasing will work on MeeGo and Android, Nokia could provide a dual boot option to consumers. That way if MeeGo is a total failure, the consumer can choose to fall back on Android. If Nokia released a device with USB host mode, hdmi out and all the other bells and whistles Nokia could have an OS that will compete with Apple and Google. Right now, MeeGo is really the only smartphone OS with USB host already working. With that, you could have a keyboard and monitor at your desk at work and simply plug up your phone, launch open office and start your day, then go home, and hook your device up to the tv and watch that 1080p movie you downloaded at work.
And seriously, what is your beef with keyboards? I got an HTC Incredible a couple months ago and man… I want a physical keyboard back. Virtual keyboards cover screen real estate, make hardware hotkeys impossible, often taken a split second to start up before you can actually type, and require loads more attention to make sure everything you think you typed actually appears on the screen. For me at least a physcial keyboard = less stress.
Yeah, I have a love/hate relationship with mobile keyboards – I find myself using them when they are there and not caring when they aren’t (and happy that the phone is generally thinner). I just think that overall, keyboards on phones should go away, but yeah, I do use them when they are there.
Josh and Ennis both have very valid and strong arguments for Nokia. I personally think if Nokia really wants to be successful, and I mean on top of the market successful, then Nokia needs to both increase their portfolio and create a dual booting Meego and Android device. I also feel Nokia needs to begin deploying more devices, to more areas, with more frequencies. By more frequencies I mean begin focusing on getting 3G/4G phones out(Nokia is already doing this).By more devices, I really mean more smartphones. Nokia has the ability to be turning phones out left and right, but they don’t. Why doesn’t the n900 have a cdma brother? The N9 looks promising in concept, and as a developer for Meego I have great confidence in the OS. So to suggest to drop Meego is ridiculous. If Nokia can get some hardware out there and get distribution to the U.S. , then they might get a phone that catches on. Many trends begin in the United States, for instance android… So if you get an amazing phone that is popular in the U.S. you will be able to sell a GSM world phone version even better. It’s all about what is the hottness (next HD2, Evo, or Droid X). Also it isn’t even correct to compare Meego to Android consider how early Meego still is in development (v1.0). It’s like comparing Android 1.0 with Froyo… Not really a competition. Hopefully other companies will pick up Meego and run with it like HTC and Motorola did with Android. I know it will be big.
I guess my question is: do you think a dual booting device will be popular with consumers? Or are you thinking the carriers will get to choose the default OS?
I just wrote a long post that I lost because I forgot to fill in my name.. oh well.
I think the model for Nokia has to be power and flexibility. They can’t be afraid to make the devices completely open. Dual boot is one way of saying, “Here is the device. Do what you will and have fun! We’ll even make it easy for you by allowing you to put whatever custom roms you’d like on our equipment.”
My other point was about marketing. Iokia wants to sell their stuff in the states, lose the euro centric marketing. At least for this Californian, it doesn’t work. A family centered approach might work. Lots of carriers offer great family plans now. Why not buildon that and offer dad over the graphical administrator access to any device used by a member of his family? How about family VOIP push-to-talk? Over the air games with the family? Lots of opportunities there…
Ugh typo city – 2nd paragraph should read “…If Nokia wants to sell..”
“..offer dad over the air graphical administrator…”
nokia with android ? fucking awesome =))
but i doubt that x(
Another android player – no way. Differentiation is key here, NOKIA needs its own eco system. Meego seems ideal to be pushed down from high-end tablets, smartphones etc. increasingly into the medium and low-end range of devices. With Windows phone 7 struggling to gain momentum, developer traction, NOKIA teaming up with MS could be an interesting option. But if NOKIA is willing to let go of Symbian, I frankly doubt it.
Nokia going with Android may be a mistake. I thoght that Nokia should go Android before but I have changed my mind. With HTC and Motorola very much entrenched in Andoid space, Android option looks less and less favorable.
By going with Windows Phone 7 Nokia gets two things. First, she gets a differentiated entry into US market sidestepping Motorola and HTC. Nokia makes good hardware but her software’s idiosyncrases, for better or for worse, has held her back in the US market. Two, she rides on the coattails of heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy promotion Microsoft will have to do to make Windows Phone 7 a viable third option in OS wars. I believe Microsoft will have to spend close to $1B in promoting Windows Phone 7. Nokia’s phone needs to be the phone that carriers push for Windows Phone 7.
Windows 7? You gotta be kidding. I’d place my bets on an unknown MeeGo OS any day over a MS mobile OS. I have worked on all iterations of Windows Mobile starting from 3.1 and don’t hold any hope for that OS. The way I see it, its just like putting lipstick on a pig. For starters, try to get your hands on a Nokia N900. It’s on Nokia’s Maemo platform. It’s simply amazing and powerful – way better than what the iOS and Android can offer. Unfortunately its more suited for tech geeks and not for “consumers”. If what I understand is correct, MeeGo will be very similar to Maemo (and probably better) and tailored to meet the average consumer who buys an iPhone or a Droid. Geeks who want to tweek things themselves will have to be content with the N900 :(
Certainly aligning themselves with Microsoft in this fight wouldn’t be wholly a bad idea, but I have to agree that they might as well stick with MeeGo if the other option is Windows 7.
Until Windows phone 7 can do copy and paste and multitasking it should be considered a total failure. No streaming music while you use your device? Lame. Windows phone 7 is a pretty yet hollow shell at the moment.
Let us make it clear. Nokia cannot go Windows Phone 7 because WP7 requires a Qualcomm Snapdragon. Nokia still has a major beef with Qualcomm, and needs to use its existing supply line of Freescale ARM11 chips and TI OMAP3 chips like used on the N900. But Android runs on these, the Droid uses the same chip as the N900.
Nokia has resolved its problems with Qualcomm. They have already worked together on a number of products for Verizon Wireless (eg. Nokia 2705, 6205, 7705 etc). They have a good working relationship now. But how much importance Qualcomm gives to Nokia – which is virtually a non entity in the US market is to be seen.
Other things. You can make Android work with Ovi Maps. You can make Android work with OVI Mail. The Chinese has shown you can un Google an Android by adding your own search, map and store options. You cannot do that with Windows Phone 7 which is another closed garden you don’t need.
Nokia will never use Android because Nokia’s and Google’s business models are overlapping too much.
Nokia wants to be in service business … Google is the main player in service business in old web and they are working hard to be main player in mobile (web).
The main tool in this game is the OS. Google has their way to control Android and Nokia has another ways to control Symbian and Meego. You still remember what happened when MS got major share in computer OSs. Nokia and Google are approaching the same business from different directions but their goal is surprisingly similar.
Both Symbian and Meego are real open source but Nokia still has has lot of power in them both (biggest customer, biggest developer). And more over Nokia controls which is now the official development tool for both of them.
There were bright comments and I’m really happy about them after such a lame article.
As I said in the article, I agree that Nokia and Google have overlapping interests – an in the end that could be the main reason they don’t go with Android. Can Nokia make money off of services on an Android phone? Sure they could if they did it right. Would it be great for Google too if Nokia went with Android, sure it would. Is Google Nokia’s main competition in the world? I’d say not. Does Nokia need a shot in the arm? I think I made that a pretty clear yes. So for Nokia, it needs to look at the lesser of two evils and then try to capitalize on it.
Thanks for reading!
From a dev’s point of view, the interesting question is whether Nokia can port Qt to Android. If they can, they might add a very useful tool to the Android toolbox.
The truth is that Nokia is facing same problems like Microsoft. These companies are old and tired and becoming too conservative in fast growing markets. Nokia’s destiny was that it never really understand that these world is going to open source software. Microsoft has fought FOSS over 10 years are loosing the war on smartbooks, devices, tablets and later on desktops too. It’s a question about stalinism inside Microsoft and Nokia. Times are changing. Sooner or later Nokia is sold. No doubt. Their glory days have gone with the wind.
Shallow, knee-jerk Android Fan boy analysis (if you can call it that)… If you’re a company of Nokia’s size, why would you base your growth on a company that has a totally different business model, wants to know who all your customers are and has no interest in helping or collaborating. Think!!!
Not a fanboy of anything, especially of an OS. As far as Google and Nokia working together, it’s called a “strategic partnership”. Thanks for reading and commenting.
Nokia’s choice is dead obvious: DON’T GO ANDROID NO MATTER WHAT.
Google is their worst enemy (just like it’s the worst enemy for Apple, Microsoft and HTC, for that matter). Because in Google’s ideal world, devices cost nothing and are dumb taps on dumb pipes connecting users with Google’s services. Google wants prices for both software and hardware to go down as fast and as deep as possible. Going Android would be trading short-term revenue boost for long-term prospects. For smaller players it’s okay. For sinking Titanics like Motorola it’s okay, they either survive next quarter or die, so they discount anything long-term. Nokia doesn’t have short-term problems, their hurdles are strategic.
An alliance with Apple is an impossible thing. Ask Adobe, or Jobs himself.
Microsoft is the only company that can have lasting strategic relationships with virtually anyone (including Apple, as a matter of fact). So it’s either that or going alone. Case closed.
Is Samsung a sinking titanic? Cisco?
Android is just an OS. You can put Bing and Yahoo and any service you want on it. But it will bring tons of development. Nokia sells tons of phones but they have nothing to show for all that marketshare when it comes to developer adoption. It’s as if people are just using them as feature phones and the rest of the OS’s capabilities are wasted.