Let’s go back to the start of this story. It starts with Kevin Rose, CEO of Digg, posting a tweet this morning.
Now, Rose (to my knowledge) isn’t one to go throwing rumors without having some sort of backing. He states the rumor to be that Google will be building a “Facebook competitor”, and we’ll take this as a firm “maybe”.
Looking at numbers alone, the odds of quickly surpassing Facebook would be insurmountable. To even give the behemoth a run for its money would be quite the feat. So what could Google be planning? Let’s look at the possibilities:
Orkut
While the rest of the world has somewhat forgotten about Orkut, the site still has a heavy following in Brazil and India, with a worldwide base of over 100 million users. With some heavy changes, Orkut could become a player but privacy issues of the past might haunt Google.
Buzz
Ah yes, it’s Buzz. That service that everybody seems to know about, yet nobody seems to use. If you have a Gmail account, and nearly 200 million people do, then you have a Buzz account.
Putting additional features into Buzz, and re-introducing it as a true social network could provide Google with enough leverage to be a thorn in the side of Facebook. As it stands, however, Buzz doesn’t have near what it would need to overthrow the blue giant on its own.
The Combination
If Google truly is getting into a war with Facebook, and there’s no reason to believe that it isn’t, then the combination of both Orkut and Buzz would be the obvious choice.
Knowing that a Google account is required to use Orkut, and a Gmail account is required for Buzz, we can safely assume that we’re looking at roughly 200 million users to any service that would combine the two. This number could sway one direction or the other, as a Google account does not equate to a Gmail account, but I’d say that 200 million is a solid guess.
200 million is already half of the 400 million population of Facebook.
See where I’m heading, here? It wouldn’t take much for Google to not only be a thorn, but to actually come knocking with a heavy hand on the door of Facebook. So what would it take? Twitter user @adnys seems to be onto one idea: the translation of Buzz into Portugese. This translation would open the door for the huge Brazilian population on Orkut to begin using Buzz more effectively.
Why It Makes Sense
Facebook is making money hand over fist, all the while it is pushing its way into a market that Google currently owns. Oh, and let’s not forget that Facebook is doing all of this behind essentially closed doors. Don’t let public Like buttons and an Open Graph fool you, Facebook owns everything inside those walls.
On the subject of not forgetting, many people seem to skip over the fact that Google is an advertising company. Search may be what it does primarily, but it makes its money via advertising. All of those lovely Google services that you use on a daily basis? They’re all advertising supported, or they are paths by which advertising can be provided to you.
In order for Google to keep growing at the rate that it has, the company will need to make some strong moves in the future. Owning a social network that could give Facebook some competition only makes sense. Keeping that network open by basing it on a structure that already exists in the wild is even smarter.
A social media network, owned and operated by Google, would allow nearly limitless potential for advertising. Add to that the fact that there are still a lot of people who are none-too-happy with Facebook and you have a solid foundation upon which Google could build.
Will Facebook go down in flames? Not likely. Sites simply don’t go from 400 million to zero without something going horribly wrong. However, is there room for another network? You bet.
Honestly, at this point, Google is already in a position to be the one to make that happen. The only question is whether or not Facebook is the right target. In fact, our own @ChatCat theorizes that Google should do social, but set its sights on LinkedIn, instead.















I would add two more things to Orkut and Buzz and these are Friend Connect and Wave. It’s easy to see that Google is trying to integrate Wave with Orkut and blogs (unsuprisingly mostly Blogger) from the very beggining and Friend Connect is an attempt to get more info about users and display them better targeted ads.
I think that they got almost everything that they need.
And continues to stiff competition among them and will wait the victor of them ^ _ ^
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Brad I didn’t read your whole article. But is taking on Apple yesterdays news? I’ll read your fine thesis later.
That all depends on what the do today ;)
Yeah FB is definitely going to be a big threat to Google, masses have spent tones of time investing in their fb profiles, for them switching search habits will be a hell of a lot easier than switching social network.
There is just no way Orkut or Buzz is going to do the job, that’s just silly. IMO googles only chance is snapping up a start up with a NEW idea but who is also ethically sound, possibly fb weakest link at this point. Google has loads of interesting little side projects but they only appeal to geeks and never going to catch on.
As for “google me”, urgh, I hope thats not true. The new solution needs to be launched independent of the google profile – sure, add a super easy way to import details if uses want but I have little confidence in google building a winner out of gmail/profiles.
I think apple could do it easly with they iProducts (iPod, iPhone…) and with me.com.
why? Apple is getting better and better. Adding something that will interact with you device like game scores, music library, photos, videos and other things like those geolocation like gowalla or fourthsquare. Also the other reason is that Apple have good name till now, nobody complains about it.
But, getting Brad’s point here google can easy do this, because of those services that Brad mention.
Also an one click import from facebook and all facebook features could help. Maybe!
Facebook is huge… However they can be beaten, They have a great product however another one even better can be made.. Remeber when we all used yahoo to internet search.. now we “google it”.
There are many ways to best FB as a social site, and there are many millions of ppl who are not on FB. Social media is great how ever someone needs to take “it” to the next level.
I think they need to fix their not allowing multiple google account logins on one browser. Also should make it possible to switch emails associated with things like blogger. I had to use a separate email to fix issues I had with my first attempts on blogger and now it has nothing to do with my gmail account and both won’t be signed in at the same time on the same browser. It’s pretty annoying and I don’t see how they’re gonna make a good network with it not linked all to the same thing.
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Google has so many more useful tools that it could be integrate into a social network. They will eventually figure out how to make a legit FB competitor soon.
They’re this decade’s Microsoft.
I’ve got my money on switchloop. It’s a new network that isn’t launched yet. I think it will give them both a run. teamswitchloop.wordpress.com
This is my issue with Google proper — it’s disconnected. Google has such a massive portfolio of applications and services. I fail to understand why there is no congruency or very little congruency.
Why not use iGoogle as a dashboard to Google news, Buzz, Orkut and Gmail. Yes, I know that you can do that now but have you used iGoogle — it’s a God awful interface. Not to mention that Orkut and Buzz are simply poor services. It just feels that Google puts out applications and services — then gives them no parental supervision.
If Google wants to wage a social networking war with Facebook — the company will need to improve its services — by hiring UI and theming experts.
I totally agree with Ramon. Google’s myriad disconnected apps and the “sameness” of their UI (oik, gmail’s insistence on threading emails as convos) is the issue. A beautiful play would be to hire some Apple insanely great UI designers. Unfortunately- this is not in their DNA —- they believe they can conquer the world with AI alone.
Let’s put Orkut and Buzz at the side for a moment. Maybe google will do what i think is the next logical step. Provide an open protocol / distributed plattform, which will give user full power of their data and even provide an open client which everybody can deploy on their own server. Maybe i’m wrong but distributed social networks are something that i definitely see coming, but maybe this is too early…
My guess is that its not about Google challenging Facebook. Most probably a “Google Me” function would just get Google more data about a specific user, making it possible to extend personalized and social search even more.
I think the best way is to combine all of their failures/semi successes into one powerhouse. Shouldn’t be a problem. They have all the brain power and resources necessary.
As others here have said, I think Google already has everything necessary for a social network; it just needs to integrate the existing products. Here’s a mockup I did a while ago: http://www.google.com/buzz/eph.zero/Dz5M935ufqq/
I’m not sure how I’d fit Wave into it all, though I’d like to see that integrated as well.
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