The Kinect is Microsoft’s holiday gift to itself if revenue estimates hold true

By now it is common knowledge that the Kinect for Xbox 360 is a runaway hit, but what that will eventually mean in terms of total revenue for the Redmond giant remains anyone’s guess.

That is, unless your name is Sandeep Aggarwal, analyst extraordinaire, and man behind some very impressive Kinect revenue estimations. His total guess? The Kinect will drive two billion dollars in revenue.

That would work out to around 13.33 million Kinects sold, or about one per three Xbox 360s in the market, a very large number. However, Aggarwal is discussing more than just plain Kinect sales, he views the Kinect as a halo product (ha) that is boosting the market perception of the console (from good to better, we presume), and driving total dollars in the ecosystem to new heights:

“As expected, the launch of Kinect increased noticeably the overall buzz around Xbox and helped improve the adoption of the console.”

Past that, Aggarwal expects the Kinect to help Microsoft reduce their churn rate among paid Xbox Live subscribers. It should be noted that the Xbox 360 is currently experiencing a sales surge.

We have reported repeatedly on the success of the Kinect because it is indeed selling like the proverbial hotcake. At last mark, Microsoft told the world that in a mere 25 days, 2.5 million Kinects had been sold. Will that impressive 100,000 units sold per day rate continue? Time will tell.

Until then, expect the Xbox 360 to stay the apple of the consumer’s eye. In fact, we think that it just may come to past that Microsoft will blow pass its 5 million unit sales estimation for the year before Christmas, something that it will surely sing from the rooftops.

As a short mathematical postscript, 5 million Kinects sold at the US $150 per unit price is $750,000,000 in revenue.